Every day I try to cover a stock in stock observation column. The idea is to highlight a stock where I feel that trend is changing or a big move is in the offing. Here are stocks that I covered in State of the Market Stock Observation section between May 16-May 30.
This is a follow-up to the review I did couple of weeks back. Here’s the last review I did on June 10 2012 for stocks during May 01-May 15
May 16 2012: Natco Pharma: Leadership Stock at Support – The Bullish case was made when stock was at Rs. 364 on premise that leadership stocks are buy at supports [stock was at 50 dma]. What happened? : The stock did bounce to Rs. 425 from 364 but then the move fizzled out and stock now has broken both 50 dma/100 dma and seems to be headed towards 200 dma of 293. The stock has been a disappointment but may present attractive opportunity at 200 dma.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 17 2012: Is Cadila Healthcare turning around? – The bullish case was made when stock was at 786 on assumption that stock has sustained above 200 dma and one can expect good times ahead. What happened? :The stock dipped and tested levels of 710 just below 200 dma of 725 and then bounced. The stock is once again trading at 765. So, no major progress in the stock in last 6-7 weeks.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 20 2012: :Dish TV: Bullish Launch or Misfire -The article was written because Dish TV made a 10% move on May 17. The idea was to analyze – Is the move going to change the sentiment on the stock or Was it just a one day misfire which will soon fizzle out? My take was – It’s too early to say anything decisive on the stock. What happened? :There was no follow through and it was just a 1-day move. The stock is now at 61.7
Source: Chartalert.com
May 21 2012: Tata Motors: Decline = Buying Opportunity – A Bullish case was made assuming that stock will hold 100 dma of 260. What happened? – The stock did not hold 100 dma and slipped to 200 dma. It was a disappointing outcome. The 200 dma seems to be working fine as of now.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 21 2012: Will Bulls take test drive on Maruti stock today? – A Bullish case was made in the post on premise that Maruti stock will hold 200 dma of 1156. What happened? – The stock broke down below 200 dma and now the 200 dma acting as resistance.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 23 2012: 3 Leadership Stocks at Support – GSK Consumer, HDFC Bank and OFSS – A Bullish case was made in the post on premise that all 3 stocks are at long term moving average and can bounce with force. What happened? – HDFC Bank posted a strong bounce from 200 dma to 545+. This stock was a big success.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 24 2012: Ranbaxy Stock: Green [Bullish] Tea – A Bullish case was made in the post on premise that A breakout above 525 on Ranbaxy means a strong upmove to 640+ on the stock. What happened? – The stock did not sustain above the breakout and failed and slipped below and collapsed to 200 dma. It was really a terrible pattern failure
Source: Chartalert.com
May 25 2012: TCS: Locked in a Box- The idea of the article was to attract attention towards how TCS is stuck in a range and what breakout would mean. It was said – Look for breakout above 1240…and real momentum may emerge once stocks take out old highs of 1280. What happened – The breakout happened and stock did rally to 1280 – old high but no momentum emerged beyond 1280.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 28 2012: Reliance – Small window of Opportunity – A Bullish case was made in the post on premise that breakout above 708-710 will lead the stock higher and take it to 760. What happened? – A month has passed and stock has made no visible progress and is still trading at 720.
Source: Chartalert.com
May 30 2012: Is McLeod Russel ready to Breakout? – A Bullish case was made in the post on premise that breakout above 285 will lead the stock higher.What happened? – A month has passed and stock has slowly inched up to 295.
Source: Chartalert.com
Summary
The stock selection between May 16-May 30 unlike May 01-15 period was not great and most of the stocks failed at their support. We identified lots of great stocks during May01-May15 period from KPIT to Berger Paints to ITC to Glenmark and AGC Networks BUT that was not the case during May 16-May 30. Most of the patterns failed.
The objective of the review is to revisit old stock stories and help us all learn why some patterns succeed and why some fail.
Sir
I think you are doing a wonderful job by enlightening us on various technical analysis methods and stock selection process. I find this site is very useful to investors/ traders. What I find noteworthy is your humility in admitting the pattern failures. The chart given along with the analysis gives the reader a chance for own analysis before taking any call and at the same time, he can understand various ways of reading the charts. please keep up the good work.