The Chart is of Brent Crude Oil. One of the major headache for Govt: Open ended Oil Subsidy. In last few years, the problem got compounded with depreciating Rupee. But with INR now stable b/w 57 and 61 band - it all depends on Crude Oil price trajectory.
Here's the Brent Crude Oil Weekly Chart
As you can see in the chart above: Brent Crude Oil is right at edge of lower end of the triangle. It also coincides with 200 week moving average. Any break down here will cause tremendous panic in Oil market. There is another very interesting thing that happened. Crude Oil broke out above the triangle because of the ISIS situation in Iraq but it seems that was a fake breakout and in last three weeks, traders have dumped Crude, and any more selling will result in breakdown and panic.
The Selling in Crude has been attributed to pick up in Libya exports.
Technically, Crude has been very quiet for years now and hence any breakdown can lead to sudden price volatility expansion and we may see major price adjustment downwards may be to the tune of $10-15. If that happens, it will be the best news for Modi Govt. Will that happen? We will see.
The blogpost is purely for educational purpose.