- Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be ~Jack Welch
- We never know what the market will do until it does it. There are signs, but more has probably been lost in anticipating than the move itself
- The moment market sells off - people start looking at Fear Index i.e. CBoE VIX index. Big spike this week
- How S&P500 fall appears on daily chart? It's right at 50 dma: will bulls buy this dip?
- Where is the S&P500 support on weekly chart? 55 week ma which it has held since 2012 or 1810
- Why market is falling?: Valuation argument. S&P500 appears expensive on valuations - ridiculous argument
- MSCI EEM Emerging market index trades at 10 multiple but it has fallen more recently than S&P500 which trades at more than 17 times
- It is not the fundamentals that moves the market. It is how people perceive that fundamentals over next 12-18 months that moves the market
- Role of Strong USD: The dollar remains the world reserve currency, and is THE global unit of account in debt contracts. As a result, a stronger dollar implies tightening global financial conditions. Think about companies with big Dollar loans
- Keep an eye on USD index. Strength above 89 will be a major major event. Market will be looking for cues next week post US Fed meeting on Dec 16-17
- Nifty has seen pretty decent correction from highs. The index is now at 50 dma. This is now going to be the test of folks who say that they will buy the dips
- If Nifty has to bounce from 50 dma: HDFC from 100 dma needs to bounce. Will it?
- The other stock that can support the market at current levels: Tata Motors at 100 dma.
- Large cap IT stocks have corrected a lot. Can they bounce and offer support to Nifty? Look at HCL Tech daily chart
- Why only large cap IT? Keep an eye on midcap IT. I covered KPIT on Dec 07, point no. 15 This is what I said- KPIT has been stuck below 190 for entire 2014. What does the big volume move last week signify – Breakout on cards?. KPIT is now at 191
- Very few stocks have capacity to swim against the tide. If Nifty sells off, it will be very difficult for many stocks to just defend their territory.
- Reliance is now trading well below every conceivable support. It means institutions have more reasons to pare/liquidate holdings in the stock
- Adani Enterprises is right at 200 dma. Can it survive here?
- What Indian market does will largely depend on what position FIIs take...so far they have been very supportive
- Thanks to Collapse in Crude Oil prices, Inflation is no more an issue but here's the problem: growth seems to be not picking up. IIP numbers continue to shock the market
- The JPMorgan emerging market currency index is at the lowest level since it was created in 2000 and includes currencies from Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Hungary, South Africa, Russia, Turkey, Singapore, China and India
- How much Ruble has depreciated against dollar this year?
- Ruble crisis in perspective
- We all are vulnerable to mass hysteria. We are human
- You can't prove anything if people know that you feel you have something to prove. ~ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Please share your comments on what you think of market observations, market and trading in general
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers