- US economy continues to roll along despite worsening global outlook..
- Drop in Oil prices is helping US economy. November sales at U.S. retailers grew at the fastest pace in eight months, while October numbers were revised upwards.Tumbling gas prices will translate to a “consumer windfall” of up to $125 billion....according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- If you want to reduce fiscal deficit, focus on growth. Just look at how pretty fiscal deficit numbers have become in US - another sign of improving economy
- Dollar Index has turned volatile around 89. It's up 0.5% today as of now
- Prices of imported goods posted their biggest drop in nearly two and a half years in November, more evidence that falling oil prices, slow growth abroad and a strong dollar are holding down inflation in the U.S
- Dollar index above 89 will be a major major event for Global currency market. It will be bad news for commodities and Gold
- 1 USD = 62.48 INR
- At the end of 2013, the S&P500 index was trading at a P/E (TTM) of 16.9x; that has now grown to 17.4x. The most obvious head wind heading into 2015 is valuation multiples of S&P500.
- Valuations matter but only with future growth in perspective. Emerging markets were trading at attractive valuations at start of 2014 but with no clarity of growth, MSCI EEM has gone south.
- Nifty has seen pretty decent correction from highs. The index is now very close to 50 dma.
- Reliance breaks down below 920 and it's not looking good. The under performance continues
- Bharti Telecom effortlessly breaks down below 200 dma. This is not good news for Bharti investors who believed in stock turnaround
- ITC: Every intense selling has turned out to be great buying opportunity and this has been the trend since 2010.
- Will Sun Pharma do ITC and bounce from 100 dma? Nobody knows. The Chart is very extended.
- Market runs on expectations. If that expectation is not met, then stock reaction can be violent. That's what has happened with Havells. There is disconnect between growth expectations on the street and actual on-the-ground improvement. The chart looks like a falling knife as of now
- Nobody loves Metal. Look at the Tata Steel chart...intense selling
- Strong Trending stocks are good buys at moving average. BPCL has been one of the strong stock of 2014. Last time it bounced from 100 dma. This time should be no different. Stop Loss below 656
- TV18 Broadcast: The stock is on momentum radar. It is doing all right things for big move
- Bajaj Holdings at 50 dma just logged huge volumes...hmm interesting.
- The time to strike is when the opportunity presents itself.
- Snowman Logistics bounces off from 50 dma. Is this for real? If you believe the story - then yes with stop loss below 100
- Trades that cost you most are the ones you are very confident in. Its ok to have a thesis, not ok to stick with it against the price.
- Baltic Dry down about 50% in one month. This is one index that made no real recovery since 2008 crisis
- There are two main approaches to forecasting – you either assume that current trends will continue or they will violently reverse
- Traders go with trends whereas forecasters are always busy looking for end of trend.
Please share your comments on what you think of market observations, market and trading in general
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers