- Dollar Index made a big move today in US market.
- Dollar Index is on verge of gigantic breakout above 89. The move above 89 can have serious implications for various commodities and currencies.
- US economy is doing well. The US auto sales totaled 17.2 million in November, according to Autodata. That marks the strongest pace for the month of November since 2003
- The U.S. is producing the most crude oil in 30 years, and prices would need to get much worse before the shale boom dies off . There is pretty serious geo-politics at play here. Brent Crude at 70.84
- Two Big stories of 2015: 1. End of QE and 2. Collapse in Oil prices.
- US market bounced pretty strongly and closed with 0.6% gains
- In India - Nifty closed with 30 points loss post RBI rates decision. INR is holding up well. 1 USD = 61.83 INR. Expect some depreciation
- The RBI did not change interest rates. It kept the repo rate (the rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks) at 8% and the reverse repo rate at 7%
- When will RBI cut rates? The next RBI meeting is in February.
- It is very short sighted when people say you are not helping growth this quarter; we are not talking about quarters; we are talking about years of sustainable growth...Raghuram Rajan
- Bank stocks did not sell off post RBI decision. Most of them did pretty well. Here's Bank Nifty daily chart
- In Bull markets: False Breakdown is a very attractive pattern and generally results in solid gains. What happens - Stocks break down and then there in no follow through. It then results in massive bounce because of short covering and fresh buying. Can we see the same in Bharti?
- There was strong bounce in three stocks: 1. Bharat Electronics; 2. Sun Pharma Advanced and 3. Raymond. All look long term interesting plays for 2015
- What is Liquidity?: Liquidity measures how much the market can absorb without impacting price
- There is always a problem when you trade small caps and illiquid stocks. They can move pretty violently and can be difficult to manage.
- Carborundum Universal at 200 dma: The stock looks technically very attractive at 200 dma. The only issue: stock is not very liquid.
- Most of the Infra stocks find no favor with no investors and that's why they keep heading lower. Have a look at GMR Infra stock
- Hindustan Construction is holding up 200 dma very well. Can this infra stock buck the trend and move higher?
- Snowman Logistics near 20 dma: The stock seems to be losing support at 20 dma. Stop Loss = 105.4. Bulls still hoping against hope
- FMCG is one sector that continues to be in favor. Agro Tech Foods has always responded with positive bounce from 100 dma. This time appears to be no different.
- When sector is out of favor, then one strong technical bounce cannot achieve anything. Technically, It becomes a great opportunity to exit. Example: Balrampur Chini
- Text Book Turnaround: Jet Airways. The stock turned around above 200 dma, pulled back and then made a vertical upmove. I covered the stock in my notes on Nov 26 2014 as Turnaround play.
- "In any contest between power and patience, bet on patience" – W.B. Prescott.
- The worst decisions, in life and markets come from extremes: overconfidence OR a lack of confidence
Please share your comments on what you think of market observations, market and trading in general
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers