- James Bond has a license to kill and Central Bank has a license to lie...one analyst on CNBC. [Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan had assured just the week before that the Swiss would continue to “hold the peg”]
- Expect more Swiss National Bank episodes in 2015 as central banks struggle to fight volatile capital flows says IMF's chief economist.
- The Only Way To Short Central Banks Is To Be Long Gold...Mark Faber. It looks this trade has many takers in 2015.
- ECB to announce conditional QE of at least €40bn/month in its January 22 policy- Nomura. The Hope: Such an announcement would give markets the greatest certainty that the ECB is prepared to do “whatever it takes” to try to return inflation to its target
- 2015 has not been very kind to S&P500 so far despite people feeling good about economy
- There is new belief: 2015 is going to be great year for Main Street but terrible year for Wall Street.
- Blame the Dollar Index. It has broken out above 89. See the daily chart
- A sharp dollar rise against both the euro and yen is expected to crimp profits for some US companies. Deustche Bank estimates that every 10% rise in Dollar index, S&P500 faces earnings decline of $2.
- The other problem: World is slowing down. China posted slowest pace of expansion since 1990. IMF has cut 2015 global growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.8%
- Economists are like sports announcers. They just go with the flow. That's their rationale and analysis
- Technical trading is about visual technique and not allowing the mind to over think.
- In Bull market - market always finds reasons to rally. The dramatic rate cut announcement means Nifty at new HIGH
- As you can see in the chart above: the new line of support is 100 dma which as of today stands at 8191
- Markets never become expensive just because you don't like it. One should always stay away from cheap and expensive crap arguments people peddle on TV
- HDFC is the new market leader. What does it mean? Every time market pulls back - it is the HDFC that will rally more than Nifty.
- The strength in market is getting reflected in USDINR. Massive INR appreciation this year which has surprised lots of folks. INR heading towards 60.93
- Sun Pharma Advanced: Momentum Accelerator. The stock has made a big move and is now in buy zone with stop loss at 220
- Sintex is the new turnaround trade. If it closes and sustains above 105 for next few weeks - then stock has great future
- Never abandon discipline. All turnarounds do not succeed. Keep a stop loss at 5% below the turnaround price to protect from violent downside. Example: Escorts. See how it turned around and then failed.
- Lots of time assets are in self-fulfilling downward spiral. Is Brent Crude in that downward spiral right now?
- Has Brent Crude put a floor? Long Legged doji last week does indicate that. But this week Brent Crude has started declining again. It should hold 45 on closing basis else fresh decline will start
- New Risk on Horizon: Elections in Greece on Jan 25.
- The thought process of average trader through the market cycle
- "To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate." ~Jesse Livermore.
- Never put a trade because you feel excited about the market. That's generally the worst time. It never hurts to buy a strong market on pullback
Please share your comments on what you think of market observations, market and trading in general
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers