- Markets are supposed to be discounting mechanisms and hence a leading indicator as to what will “eventually” happen to the real economy. That's the best way to describe market when you cannot justify current scenario.
- Technically S&P500 is in strong uptrend. This is just a month chart
- Over the long-run, the crowd is invariably wrong at key turning points in the market, thus it pays to be a contrarian. The problem: If you keep predicting turning points, then you miss the trend.
- Global markets: After a long time - traders saw a red screen across Geography.
- It was the Chinese markets that started painting the screen red with 2% downmove. It then got followed up in Europe.
- The news flow did not help. In US, auto sales missed expectations and that was the big reason for market decline. Ford Motor Company posted a sales decline of 2% compared to expectations of a near 6% gain. This came as a shock to the market
- Now Jobs data on Friday becomes very important
- Coming to Indian market: No Red on the screen. Nifty is near 9000 now
- What helped Indian market - The news that Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has raised its stake in Reliance. Reliance stock rallied and helped the market big time
- It was not only Reliance. Yesterday Nifty rally to 9000 was well supported by ADAG group stocks too
- Buy and Sell: FIIs continue to buy. They net bought shares worth Rs 773 cr on Mar 3 (Prov) whereas DIIs net sold shares worth Rs 304 cr on Mar 3 (Prov)
- Lots of Brokerages have turned bearish on ITC. The stock is at 100 week moving average - the average which it has not breached since July 2009. Will the stock finally crack below it?
- Strong stocks are great buys at 200 dma. Here's a text book example: TCS bouncing from 200 dma
- I have started a new stock screen newsletter: Tracking stocks at 200 dma. It's exclusive for smarketpremium.com subscribers.
- Sometimes Breakouts are phenomenal. Tata Elxsi broke out in Jan (a stock we have been tracking in smarketpremium.com) and doubled in just 2 months. I track breakouts at smarketpremium.com
- Here's one stock that seems to be turning around on daily chart. The big question: will there be follow through? The stock is Elecon
- One momentum stock everyone seems to be tracking: Pipavav. The problem: stock appears too extended and support very far away. Challenge: where to keep stop loss
- When stocks are choppy, don't hope. Just avoid them totally. Example: Look at the chart of Lovable
- When asset becomes trendless, it becomes difficult to guess where it's headed next. Gold is also searching for direction
- Currency plays a big role in returns. Here's a brilliant tweet explaining this
- Emerging markets continue to underperform. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is up 2.9% year to date
- Frontier markets 101: These markets are considered to be in a “pre-emerging stage” and are characterized by high GDP growth, low per-capita GDP, high inflation, and illiquid financial markets
- Emotions cause traders to see the market as they want, not as it actually exists
- As a trader, once job should be to exploit market emotions and control one’s own emotions.
- If the markets were certain then there would be no markets. No one can give you a 100% guarantee of what market will do; all we know is what it can do
ChartSource: Chartalert.com [Indian Stocks]
Please share your comments on what you think of market observations, market and trading in general
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers