When it comes to measuring market performance - people look at YTD, but that offers no meaningful insight on recent market behavior. Example: Nifty is down 1.1% YTD Year to Date. Does it tell you anything?
But here are two dates that put the recent market behavior in right perspective
Feb 12 2016: Nifty touched 200 week moving average - the day when market made bottom.
Nifty is right now standing at the ULTIMATE support level https://t.co/Mkf9KW8SsH
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) February 14, 2016
What is the significance of support of 200 week ma?
Nifty is standing at the Ultimate support level and what needs to be seen:Long-term investors will put in the money at this crucial juncture
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) February 16, 2016
The 200 week moving average support worked and Nifty now is up 12.3% from that day
March 01: A day after Budget when market turned around and started rallying.
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) February 17, 2016
It's quite interesting that Nifty topped out few days after budget in 2015 and did exactly the reverse in 2016. This is what I mentioned in my blog on Feb 16 2016 -
There is nothing to fear now but fear itself
My feeling: Nifty is at make or break level and this Budget can either push it down to total chaos or provide a new life that can re-start fresh Bull market. Ab jo hoga woh to waqt bataayega.
The above two dates are great reference point and bulls should remember it to measure any market strength.
Nifty weekly chart since Feb 2016
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Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers