INR has appreciated considerably since Feb 29 2016. Though YTD it is at same level
1 USD = 66.19 INR on Dec 31 2015
1 USD = 66.36 INR on April 29 2016
Here's how USDINR is placed technically on the daily chart
As you can see in the chart above - USDINR is well placed at 200 dma and consolidating since April 01 2016. Technically, it's a great level from where INR should depreciate again. Any significant appreciation in INR from current levels will be counterproductive economically because it will make Govt's Make in India project unviable. Hence, RBI will step in to stop any dramatic appreciation in INR. The only excpetion: If USD globally sells of dramatically, then in that case - INR will strengthen too.
On a weekly chart - the support looks little more clear around 65.86-66 levels
USDINR made a decisive breakout above 64 in August 2015 and rallied all the way to 69. A short term breakdown below 50 week ma can take USDINR to 100 week ma which as of today stands near 64.The big question: What's the way ahead - a range between 66 and 69 or between 64 and 66.5. Right now the assumption is between 66 and 69 but any breakdown below 50 week ma will change that range
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Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers