- The Bullish march of S&P500 continues. Yesterday again it closed near all time high. This is SPY ETF
- Complacency or Strong Trend in place?
- There is "Fear of Missing Out" money chasing US market. Last week - US ETFs attracted $4.4 bn and in that S&P500 based ETF SPY got $3.3 bn
- Now the message is loud and clear
- Bears don't like the market and they have the Valuation argument to throw but does it matter
- Technicals do favor strong Bull market ahead
The longer a breakout holds the more meaningful it becomes.
— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) August 16, 2016
- Emerging Markets back in vogue. It's already up 17% YTD; and it can rally up to $45
- Three arguments in favor of Emerging markets: 1. Developed market equities overvalued; 2. Too much Liquidity and 3. TINA There is no Alternative to equities with $14.3 trillion bonds giving Negative yield
- No wonder Top down money is flowing in equities. Last week: Two ETFs that attracted huge money - 1. SPY S&P500 ($3.3 billion) and 2. MSCI EEM Emerging markets (1.3 bn). Surprise Surprise - Gold saw an outflow.
- The most confusing signal is coming out of Japan. Why Japanese Yen is strengthening at a time when everybody seems to be on Risk ON mode. Normally, JPY weakens under such circumstances
- Japanese Yen is called safe haven trade. It means money moves back in Japan from other parts of the world during Risk OFF conditions.
- Japanese stocks don't like Strong Yen
- When people are fearful, they buy Gold. Look at the rally in Gold miners in 2016
- Gold tops the list when it comes to money flow Year to date. Gold has attracted $12.8 bn Year to date
- Are people taking money off the table when it comes to Gold?
- When is US Fed going to hike rates again? Some believe never and Majority now believes December
- Never confuse market rally with rosy scenario. All market rally reflects what has been priced in and where is the source of surprise
- What IF - Fed hikes next month (Surprise Factor?)
- India's Inflation is mostly Food related but that's not the case with US economy.
- Hmm...Where is the bottom?
- Economic data in the US continues to surprise on the upside
- Once upon a time.
- Twitter wisdom.
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The S&P 500 traded in a range yesterday of only 0.35% - the tightest range while making a new high over the past 12 new highs.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 16, 2016
— CNBC (@CNBC) August 16, 2016
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) August 16, 2016
USD/JPY plunges closer to 100. Nikkei futures signal Japanese stocks going to get whacked at the re-open. Strap in. pic.twitter.com/y0Ad8CtA11
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) August 16, 2016
— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) August 16, 2016
— Eddie van der Walt (@EdVanDerWalt) August 16, 2016
US CPI data suggest FED will not hike in Sep - ING https://t.co/c9obfv0vAa
— FXStreet News (@FXstreetNews) August 16, 2016
— FOX Business (@FoxBusiness) August 16, 2016
The deflation in food prices we're seeing in the U.S. is really pretty historic pic.twitter.com/iJMYwt77Dn
— Matthew B (@boes_) August 16, 2016
— CNNMoney (@CNNMoney) August 16, 2016
July housing starts jump to a 5-month high https://t.co/7ZeAEz5xuP
— CNBC (@CNBC) August 16, 2016
Hard disks in 1981. pic.twitter.com/RPCEERII6u
— History In Pictures (@HistoryInPix) August 16, 2016
I always remind myself "don't force trades, let them come to you. If you miss one, there will be another right around the corner."
— Michael Lamothe (@MichaelGLamothe) August 16, 2016
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Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers