The State of INR in 2017
How much INR has appreciated this year....unbelievable pic.twitter.com/7wVkhMOevm
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) April 26, 2017
Indian Rupee is not a trending asset. It has been rangebound for last 3-4 years and very stable currency despite complete chaos in the Global currency market.
What does Rangebound mean?
It means the asset pulls back from resistance and bounces from support.
Here's USDINR daily Chart
What can we conclude from the above chart - USDINR has a stiff resistance at 68.9. It has always stalled at that level in last 3-4 years. It's amazing that despite huge negatives - it has refused to depreciate beyond 68.9. This time even demonetization did not break INR
68.85 is now a very solid resistance when it comes to USDINR. It has formed tops on 3 major occasions in last 4 years pic.twitter.com/aF88RcPEm9
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) December 7, 2016
Also, this time - USDINR has pulled back quite substantially from 68.9. So, the next question: Where is the support?
As you can see in the chart above: Price Action wise - USDINR is at a very solid support level of 200 dma as well as horizontal line support. Ideally, USDINR should hold the current level and probably bounce from here.
If for any reason: USDINR slips below 64 - one cannot rule out sharp appreciating move to 58 but it will be extremely bad news for the Indian economy. It will not only kill exporters but it will make any investment activity in the country unviable as it will be cheaper to import than Make in India.
Strength in INR will make "Make in India" unviable in many sectors....this is big negative for job creation https://t.co/uV3s5fjgZu
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) April 6, 2017
Stocks and Asset make a move for reason.
The idea behind reading Price Action is to hunt a logic and try to reason it. The question one needs to ask: Does it make sense and what is market trying to communicate? This is what I tweeted when demonetization was at peak
Once growth resumes: INR will trade closer to 65
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) November 24, 2016
Science of Stock Price Action Video Book: smarketpremium.com
Science of Stock Price Action is a training course designed to help you understand the price action mechanics with Live case studies and real life applications. It's not a recommendation service but help one understand this fascinating world of how price action results in a sustained trend.
One of the objectives of writing stateofthemarket.net blog posts is to demonstrate how price action works in a very simplistic manner. I have been writing about markets for years now and have developed a unique way of looking at the market. I have developed a course material if you are interested in learning about this whole space which comprises of the following
Do you want to Learn Science of Stock Price Action with more Live case studies covering Indian and Global stocks - www.smarketpremium.com
How has Science of Stock Price Action helped one of my reader?
Disclaimer – The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers